The US suspended all government activity in Michoacán on 5 August, after its embassy issued a security alert citing a threat to US interests, halting the packhouse inspections Mexican avocados legally require to enter the country — in the stretch of the year when Mexico ships least to its main market.

The US Department of Agriculture is authorising only fruit received on or before 4 August, and only where it was received in the presence of a US regulatory officer. No export shipments were approved on 5 August. "Shipments of export avocados are not being approved," APEAM, the Mexican avocado producers' and packers' association, told its members, adding that each packhouse would decide for itself whether to keep harvesting. No resumption date has been set.

Under the operational workplan granting Mexican Hass avocados access to the US market, fruit must come from orchards certified by SENASICA inspectors in Mexico "and must also be inspected at packing facilities by APHIS inspectors prior to export to the United States", the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service wrote in its March annual report on the crop.

August is the trough of Mexico's export year, accounting for between 6 and 8 per cent of its avocado shipments to the US in each of the past three years, against 11 to 13 per cent for January, according to US Census Bureau trade data accessed via Cropli. Mexico shipped 84,000 tonnes last August and 117,800 tonnes in January.

[explore products="080440" view="chart" partner="MX" period="monthly" metric="quantity" series="line" years="2023-2026" title="US avocado imports from Mexico, monthly" subtitle="Tonnes, January 2023 to June 2026. August is the seasonal trough"]

Mexico had also been shipping heavily into a falling market — 670,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 33.6 per cent from 501,400 tonnes a year earlier, while the average customs value fell 41 per cent to $2.34 per kg from $3.97.

Jalisco, the only other state authorised to ship avocados to the US, is not covered by the suspension and continues to export, the Associated Press reported. It accounts for about 10 per cent of Mexican production against Michoacán's 75 per cent, on figures from Mexico's agri-food information service SIAP. APEAM said on Thursday it did not expect the pause to hurt cross-border sales significantly, Reuters reported.

Inspections were suspended for about 10 days in June 2024, after two USDA inspectors were assaulted at a roadblock in Paracho, at a cost to growers of about $52mn, according to Mexico News Daily. Imports from Mexico fell 33 per cent year on year that month, to 46,600 tonnes, at an average customs value of $4.10 per kg against $2.84. But May 2024, before any suspension, was already down 23 per cent at $3.30 per kg — Michoacán was in heat and drought that spring, and the June figures carry both. An earlier pause, in early 2022, ran about a week before the Super Bowl.

President Claudia Sheinbaum sent 1,500 additional troops to Michoacán on Thursday to secure the growing zones and, she said, to restore the exports as soon as possible. She also suggested Mexican officials could carry out the inspections themselves — a change that would move the verification authority APHIS has always held under the workplan.

Whatever happens at the packhouses, the orchards are growing through a failing wet season. Rainfall at Cropli's five monitoring points across the Michoacán and Jalisco belt has run at 40 to 54 per cent of the 1991-2020 normal over the past 30 days, and at 48 to 77 per cent since 1 June — halfway through the wet season on roughly half its rain. Buena Vista Tomatlán, in the Michoacán core, has had 172.6mm over 30 days against a normal of 413.1mm. USDA puts 65 per cent of Mexican orchards on seasonal rainfall alone.

[explore layer="origin-chart" originId="avocado-mexico" tab="rainfall-deficit" snapshot="es_0a36b277a2a9e16a" title="Rainfall deficit across Mexico's avocado belt" subtitle="Cumulative shortfall against the 1991-2020 normal, five monitoring points"]

After good late rains in 2025, the 2026 crop was expected to "trend toward larger, higher-value sizes", USDA wrote in March, while warning in the same paragraph that "a potential 'El Niño' (expected for the second part of CY 2026) could bring drier than average conditions and heat spikes that could decrease fruit sizes". Sixty per cent of the Flor Loca crop now being picked is falling in size 60 and smaller, FreshPlaza reported in July.

Peru, the supplier that normally covers Mexico's summer trough, ships to the US only between June and September, and moved 79,200 tonnes across last summer; its June 2026 volume came in at 21,700 tonnes against 25,300 a year earlier. ProHass has cut its growth forecast to zero after record heat on the Peruvian coast, as Cropli reported on Thursday. "The normal thing is for Peru to maintain relevant volumes until mid-September. This year we could finish the season in mid-August," ProHass president José Antonio Castro said in June. Colombia, the third supplier, moved 20,300 tonnes across all of last summer.

[explore products="080440" view="chart" partner="PE" period="monthly" metric="quantity" series="line" years="2023-2026" title="US avocado imports from Peru, monthly" subtitle="Tonnes, January 2023 to June 2026. Peru ships only between June and September"]

Paul Weismann, president of the US handler Healthy Avocado Inc, expects the fruit to size up regardless of the inspectors. "Six weeks from now, the fruit will have grown and packing houses will look to recoup their losses," he told FreshPlaza on 24 July.