Latin American banana exporters are negotiating next year's supply contracts with US and European retailers but the price of the fruit itself has barely moved despite the Iran conflict driving up costs.

US imports of fresh bananas were valued at $10.64 per 18.14 kg box in August, up about 2 per cent from February, according to Cropli's analysis of US Census Bureau customs data, which exclude ocean freight.

The benchmark price for branded Central and South American fruit loaded on to trucks at US Gulf ports fell 9 per cent over the same period to $1,100 a tonne, FAO data show.

On the shelf, bananas averaged 65.6 cents a pound in September, 2.1 per cent less than a year earlier, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Costs have moved much higher. US retail diesel averaged $6.179 a gallon on 12 October, 62 per cent above its last reading before the war, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Very low sulphur fuel oil, the marine fuel burned by refrigerated cargo ships, rose from $506 a tonne on 27 February to $961.50 on 19 March on Ship & Bunker's four-port average. It was still at $876.50 in early October on Ship & Bunker's G20 index.

"Everything is costing more money," Danny Dumas, a senior vice president at Del Monte North America, told the New York Times in a report published on 12 October. "If you ask me, it is a crisis."

A white Dole refrigerated container painted with bananas is lifted by crane over the bow of the reefer ship Dole Honduras at a port quay

At origin, Costa Rica's energy regulator Aresep approved a diesel price of ₡785 ($1.70) a litre at the start of October, 53 per cent more in colones than in February.

Ecuador, the EU's largest supplier, caps monthly fuel price moves and still subsidises diesel.

Its pump price of $3.113 a gallon from 12 October is 15 per cent above February's, and the state covers $1.22 a gallon of a $4.17 import cost, according to Petroecuador figures reported by news site Primicias.

[chart slug="banana-contract-cost-squeeze-diesel-vs-banana-price"]

Fertiliser prices have largely come back down. Black Sea urea, a global nitrogen benchmark, fell to $407.50 a tonne in September, below its pre-war level, after a spike in April, FAO data show.

Ecuador still paid for the spike: its fertiliser import bill rose 19.7 per cent to $286.2mn in the first half, according to central bank figures reported by Expreso.

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Fairtrade's September input-price survey found that a 45 kg bag of fertiliser in Ecuador cost $42, up from $35 a year earlier, and fuel cost 33 per cent more, partly reflecting the removal of the diesel subsidy in September 2025, before the war. Packing materials, inland freight and port charges per box exported through Puerto Bolívar rose a combined 13 cents to $2.47.

For Costa Rica and Colombia, currency is the larger cost. The colón strengthened from ₡502.79 to ₡455.19 to the dollar in the year to 15 October and the Colombian peso by almost 23 per cent, cutting local-currency revenue on fruit sold in dollars.

"The cost per box went up over $2 in the last year, just because of the exchange rate," a Del Monte executive said of Costa Rica on the company's earnings call on 29 July. Del Monte announced in May that it would close four farms there, citing the exchange rate first.

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Del Monte's banana unit earned a gross margin of 2.3 per cent in the second quarter, down from 7.3 per cent a year earlier.

On the same call, the executive described competition in North America as "extremely severe": "for argument's sake, today, some competitors are selling fruit in the market for $11, while the cost at the farm is FOB is almost over $11."

The company also cut its estimate of this year's external cost pressures to $45mn-$55mn from $60mn-$70mn, saying bunker fuel, diesel and fertiliser markets had "pulled back" and pointing to changes in how it buys raw materials.

That cut came on 29 July, when Brent crude was $91.95 a barrel, up from $68.53 on 2 July. Brent was $126.55 on 14 October, according to the EIA. Del Monte reports third-quarter results on 28 October.

Part of the fuel bill does not wait for the contract round. Dole has variable fuel surcharges with its North American customers, though "it comes in a quarter in arrears effectively", chief executive Rory Byrne told analysts in May.

Dole said its underlying North American banana pricing in the second quarter was "slightly higher" than a year earlier. Adjusted Ebitda, a measure of operating profit, still fell 31 per cent at its fresh fruit division.

The base price of the box is a separate fight. Much of the trade is fixed by long-term contracts, "some of which expire in December", the NYT reported.

Tom Stenzel, managing director of the Banana Association of North America, said it was "almost a mythology" among retailers that they could not raise banana prices, and that the industry's ability to absorb costs was "at a breaking point".

Miguel Angel Morales, a small grower in northern Peru, told the NYT his costs had jumped 25 to 30 per cent this year but annual contracts had locked in his prices. "If production costs increase, it's logical that banana prices should increase, right?" he asked.

[table slug="banana-contract-cost-squeeze-fairtrade-inputs" subtitle="Fairtrade survey, US$, Sep 2025 vs Sep 2026"]

The last cost shock gives a measure of what sellers can win. After diesel, freight and fertiliser spiked in 2022, the customs value of conventional, non-organic US banana imports in January and February 2023 was 7.1 per cent higher than a year earlier, the Census data show.

Costa Rican fruit rose 13.2 per cent and Colombian 19 per cent. Most of that rise built up through the second half of 2022 rather than arriving in January.

In Europe, import values have not moved either. Fresh bananas from outside the EU were valued at €12.44 ($14.20) a box in July, against €12.45 in February, on Eurostat customs data that include ocean freight.

The last time costs spiralled, Aldi, Europe's largest banana buyer, raised its price for 2022 by €1.63 a box, trade publication Reefer Trends reported. Aldi Süd has since replaced its annual tender with open-book costing based on Fairtrade's cost-of-production method.

The trade expects more this time. FreshPlaza's market overview on 9 October reported "expectations that both contract prices and overall pricing will be considerably higher next year" in North America.

"For many years, the industry has absorbed those increases. That is no longer sustainable," said Frank Burkhardt, chief commercial officer at Fyffes, which has called for an industry discussion of banana pricing.

Supply works against sellers. "We're seeing a lot of bananas in most growing regions," Andy Thomas-Stivalet of Kavidac Produce told FreshPlaza, adding that he expected heavy volumes until the end of November.

With more rain now blocking the sun in most areas, he said: "We're probably going to see a bigger drop off than usual in volume when we hit November-December."

US imports rose 5.3 per cent to 3.23mn tonnes in the first eight months. Ecuador shipped 282.2mn boxes from January to August, up 9.6 per cent, according to exporters' association Acorbanec. Ecuadorian spot fruit, sold outside contracts, averaged $7.34 a box over the first 30 weeks of the year, below the state's $7.50 floor.

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Sellers also start from a higher base. US customs values for conventional fruit in January and February were already 8 per cent above a year earlier, before the war. That rise overlapped last year's US tariffs on imports from the main exporting countries.

Neither government floor has moved. Ecuador's minimum price for 2027, set each year by the agriculture ministry, has not been published.

The 2026 level of $7.50 per 43 lb box was imposed in September 2025 after producers and exporters failed to agree. Costa Rica's legal minimum export price of $8.36 a box has been unchanged since January 2020.

US customs data for September, the first month of the contract round, are due in early November.