Arabica coffee prices fell again this week, taking the benchmark below its 2025 average and exposing thinner supply from fourth-ranked producer Guatemala that last year's record prices papered over.

The CEPEA Coffee Arabica spot index settled at $356.40 per 60-kg bag, down 12.3% from the 2025 mean of $406.44 and 25.9% below the Feb. 24, 2025 peak. It has fallen in seven of the past 10 sessions.

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The price downturn follows consensus among forecasters of a larger Brazil 2026/27 crop. State agency Conab sees 66.2 million bags; StoneX, Marex and Hedgepoint each see 75-76 million; and Rabobank expects ICE arabica to settle between $2.50 and $3.00 per pound by late 2026.

That outlook puts pressure on Guatemalan producers banking on last year's near-record benchmarks. US coffee imports from Guatemala rose 44.8% in value to $632.5 million in calendar 2025 – but volume fell 8.5% to 72,600 tonnes under HS 0901, US Census data showed.

[explore view="chart" title="More dollars, fewer kilos" subtitle="US imports of coffee (HS 0901) from Guatemala, annual value vs volume" height="500" products="0901" partner="GT" reporter="us" series="dual"]

EU imports showed the same trend: value up 51% to €249 million on flat volume of 33,300 tonnes, according to Eurostat data.

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Coffee has been Guatemala's principal export since 1870s Liberal-era land reforms made the country one of Latin America's first commercial arabica frontiers. It accounts for 3.3% of GDP and supports 125,000 farming families.

But after peaking at earlier-century highs, output has hovered near 3 million 60-kg bags for a decade. The 2012-13 coffee leaf rust epidemic, which prompted a national agricultural emergency, cut production by roughly 17% across two harvests. A run of arabica futures below $1.50 per pound between 2018 and 2020 then left smallholders producing at a loss, discouraging replanting.

Planted area has since recovered to 376,000 hectares from 305,000 in 2020, as Anacafé-led renovation added rust-tolerant hybrids to a third of arabica plantations. Strictly hard beans now make up some 80% of export volume.

[explore layer="production" view="chart" height="500" commodity="coffee-green" countries="guatemala" title="Production held but never recovered" subtitle="Guatemala green coffee production, FAOSTAT, metric tons per year"]

Production growth looks set to resume its recovery, albeit tentatively. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecast 2026/27 production at 3.13 million bags, up 3%, in its April 16 Coffee Annual.

Bearing trees rose 2% to 1.66 billion; however, non-bearing trees — the next cycle's pipeline — fell 19% to 149 million, pointing to a renovation slowdown.

The specter of disease still lingers over the sector. MY 2024/25 harvest faced higher rust pressure, with up to 20% incidence during January-March. Anacafé in September 2025 also reported the first identification in Guatemala of the coffee twig borer Xylosandrus compactus in robusta zones.

Meanwhile, higher fertilizer costs, driven by oil prices climbing alongside the war in Iran, will not affect the current harvest "but will impact the following season," the post said. Domestic oil prices were up 20% by March 2026.

One market stimulant could be Guatemala's Congress ratifying a free trade agreement with South Korea in November, eliminating a 2% tariff on green coffee and an 8% tariff on roasted coffee. Korea was the top-seven destination, although it saw the steepest decline in MY 2024/25, falling 25%.