COLOGNE, Germany -- California tomato growers are celebrating what they're calling a "unicorn season" - a near-perfect harvest that pushed yields 18.75% above the five-year average even as farmers planted 10% fewer acres.

The state's 2025 processing tomato crop reached an estimated 11.75 million short tons, up from 11.1 million short tons last year, cementing California's position as the world's top producer of tomatoes destined for paste, sauce and canned products.

"It is a 'Unicorn Season' - something we have heard could exist, but have never experienced or seen with our own eyes, until this season," said Mike Montna, president and CEO of the California Tomato Growers Association.

[chart slug="california-tomato-production"]

The windfall is a dramatic reversal after more than a decade of stagnant or declining yields caused by drought, poor water quality and scorching heat waves.

This year's success came down to timing and temperature, Montna said at the Tomato News Conference at Anuga, held last week in Cologne. Growers concentrated their reduced acreage on the best soils. Reservoirs were adequately supplied. And critically, the punishing heat that had stressed crops during key growth periods in recent years never arrived.

"The weather just really cooperated through every stage of the crop and development," Montna said. "It's amazing what a crop can do when it has very little stress throughout the season."

The harvest proceeded smoothly with a steady build-up followed by five to seven consistent weeks at peak processing - a schedule Montna called nearly ideal.

California's harvest translates to roughly 9.9 million tonnes, ahead of Italy’s expected 5.5 million tonnes and China's at 4.9 million tonnes.

Spain, Turkey and Iran round out the other major producers, with output ranging from 1.8 million to 2.4 million tonnes each.

[table slug="global-tomato-crop-estimates-2025"]

Exports climb

The strong California harvest is set to boost US tomato paste exports, which jumped to 420,380 tonnes in 2024 from about 317,000 tonnes the year before. The value of those exports rose to $422 million from $323 million.

But Montna cautioned that one exceptional year doesn't erase longer-term concerns. Growing processing tomatoes requires major upfront investment - he likened it to throwing "a $5,000 boomerang" and hoping it comes back with more money.

[agri-chart hs="200290" flow="exports" type="line" series="stackedBar" metric="quantity" view="annual" title="US exports of tomato paste" countries="484,124,380,392,528,2230,4890,410,036,784"]

Input costs for fertilizer, energy, water and labor remain high and unpredictable. And farmers must rotate tomatoes with other crops to keep soil healthy, but many of those rotation crops aren't profitable right now.

"Not one of our members grows only tomatoes," he said. "There's your tomato health, but then your overall entity health - I think that's still struggling regardless of how well the tomatoes do."

[explore view="chart" flow="exports" products="200290" metric="quantity" time="2026" partner="MX" viewby="bilateral"]

Water supply poses the biggest long-term threat. California's population has doubled to more than 40 million without adding significant new water infrastructure, Montna noted. While reservoirs are full now, future droughts could return the industry to the grinding conditions that marked most of the past decade.

"One great year doesn't mean it's going to be that way in the future," he said.